Markets
The total amount changing hands in financial markets over a year - equities, bonds, FX, derivatives, repo - from 1900 CE to today. Before 1900 this measure did not exist: organized securities and derivatives markets are largely a 19th–20th century phenomenon.
The 1900-2000 figures are rough estimates (low confidence) - to be updated when a better long-run series (BIS / WFE historical) is found. Today's figure is Layer 3's own total (within-year market flows).
How much faster did market flow grow than the real economy
Four series on one log panel, indexed to 1900 = 100. Relative to 1900, market flow today is 1.947×; over the same span GDP is 34×, physical material output 23×, population 5,2×. The flow line pulling away from the other three is financialisation.
Time points are evenly spaced, not to real time scale.
Decoupling from physical reality
Market flow relative to two real quantities. Times GDP: in 1900 an amount 1,5× the economy passed through markets; today 82×. Per tonne: the amount passing through markets per tonne of the economy's physical output was $1,4k in 1900, $114k today.
show table
| MÖ 10.000 | - |
| MÖ 8.000 | - |
| MÖ 6.000 | - |
| MÖ 4.000 | - |
| MÖ 2.000 | - |
| MS 1 | - |
| MS 1000 | - |
| MS 1700 | - |
| MS 1800 | - |
| MS 1900 | 1,5 × annual world GDP |
| MS 1950 | 2,4 × annual world GDP |
| MS 1970 | 2,3 × annual world GDP |
| MS 2000 | 26,8 × annual world GDP |
| MS 2025 | 82,4 × annual world GDP |
show table
| MÖ 10.000 | - |
| MÖ 8.000 | - |
| MÖ 6.000 | - |
| MÖ 4.000 | - |
| MÖ 2.000 | - |
| MS 1 | - |
| MS 1000 | - |
| MS 1700 | - |
| MS 1800 | - |
| MS 1900 | 1,4 thousand $ / tonne |
| MS 1950 | 2,2 thousand $ / tonne |
| MS 1970 | 2,3 thousand $ / tonne |
| MS 2000 | 35,7 thousand $ / tonne |
| MS 2025 | 114,4 thousand $ / tonne |
More per person, or more people?
How much of each period's market-flow growth came from population, and how much from rising turnover per person. Almost entirely per-person throughout - this is a financialisation story, not a population one. The bars below show the annual growth rate per period: the steepest jump is 1970–2000 (financial liberalisation, derivatives markets, electronic trading).
Raw series and data table
show table
| MÖ 10.000 | - |
| MÖ 8.000 | - |
| MÖ 6.000 | - |
| MÖ 4.000 | - |
| MÖ 2.000 | - |
| MS 1 | - |
| MS 1000 | - |
| MS 1700 | - |
| MS 1800 | - |
| MS 1900 | 5 T $ / yr |
| MS 1950 | 20 T $ / yr |
| MS 1970 | 50 T $ / yr |
| MS 2000 | 1.500 T $ / yr |
| MS 2025 | 9.735 T $ / yr |
show table
| MÖ 10.000 | - |
| MÖ 8.000 | - |
| MÖ 6.000 | - |
| MÖ 4.000 | - |
| MÖ 2.000 | - |
| MS 1 | - |
| MS 1000 | - |
| MS 1700 | - |
| MS 1800 | - |
| MS 1900 | 3.205 $ / person / yr |
| MS 1950 | 8.000 $ / person / yr |
| MS 1970 | 13.514 $ / person / yr |
| MS 2000 | 245.902 $ / person / yr |
| MS 2025 | 1.201.852 $ / person / yr |