Economy

How much faster did the economy grow than population

Five series on one log panel, indexed to 1 CE = 100. Relative to 1 CE, today services GDP is 3.522×, goods GDP 199×, total GDP 664×; GDP per capita only 15,6× — the gap is population growth. The separation of services from goods is the signature of the modern era.

Time points are evenly spaced, not to real time scale.

Goods or services

How much of GDP rests on a resource (agriculture, mining, energy and the goods made from them), and how much is pure service? For 2025 this is Layer 1's own figure (the tax bridge is split pro-rata and scaled to 2025 → goods 30,49 T $, services 87,69 T $). Since no input-output table exists before 1995, the historical service share is a sourced estimate from the structural-transformation literature (Herrendorf et al. 2014, Broadberry et al., Maddison sectoral).

At 10,000 BCE 96% of the economy is goods; 86% at 1 CE; 78% in 1800. The services share reaches 52% by 1970 and is 74% today. For almost all of human history the economy was "making stuff" — the "service economy" is a 60-year-old phenomenon. Goods GDP is still growing in absolute terms (2025: 30,49 T $); services overtook it, they did not replace it.

More per person, or more people?

Each period's GDP growth splits in two: how much came from population growth, and how much from rising output per person. Before industrialisation growth is almost entirely population; with industrialisation per-capita output becomes the main driver. The bars below show the annual growth rate per period: in 1000–1700 the economy's doubling time was 519 yr, in 1950–1970 14,5 yr.

Total GDP divided by population - the plainest measure of living standards. 937 $ at 1 CE, 14.590 $ today.