Civilization Dynamics
TR

Extraction

The raw material pulled from the planet in a year - its mass and its value at the point of extraction.
OverviewDetailed AnalysisMethodology
Population
4,4 milyon → 8,1 milyar
1.841× increasefrom foragers to urban civilisation
Annual material extraction
3,1 milyon ton → 85,06 Gton
27.617× increaseper capita only 15× — the rest is population + intensity
Average transport distance
10 km → 1.566 km
157× increasefrom local barter to intercontinental supply

Layer 0's three measures: how many we are, how much material is pulled from the ground each year, and how far it travels to reach the consumer. 14 time points from 10,000 BCE to today.

Values for 10,000 BCE – 1700 CE are model / reconstruction, not measurement. Post-1900 is increasingly directly observable. Today's figures come from Layer 0's own models.

How fast did each grow — all together

Five series on one log panel, indexed to a common base (8,000 BCE = 100). Relative to that base, today population is 1.473×, material extraction 19.332×, transport work 1,3M×. The gap between the lines is the contribution of per-capita use and average transport distance.

101001k10k100k1M10M100M1.000MMÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025Transport work ×1,3MGDP ×415kMaterial ×19kPopulation ×1kPer capita ×13
8,000 BCE = 100 · log scale · 8,000 BCE–1000 CE is model (shaded region)

Time points are evenly spaced, not to real time scale.

What are we made of

The same total material, split into 5 groups: biomass (primary crops + wood), fossil fuel, metal ore, industrial mineral, construction mineral. Pre-industrial output is almost all biomass; today biomass is 15%, construction mineral 60%, fossil 21%. 1900–2005 from Krausmann 2009 Table 1, 2025 from Layer 0's own model, earlier a sourced estimate (Methodology §2b).

%0%25%50%75%100MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
BiomassFossil fuelMetal oreIndustrial mineralConstruction mineral

Two big shifts. (1) Biomass to fossil: fossil is already 27% by 1900, the energy system's move to coal. (2) The explosion of construction mineral: 18% in 1900, 60% today — the age of concrete, asphalt, aggregate. Metal ore and industrial mineral stayed small because they are counted on a metal-content basis.

More per person, or more people?

Each period's growth in material use splits in two: how much came from population growth, and how much from rising use per person. In the agrarian era growth is almost entirely population; in the industrial era per-capita intensity takes over. The bars below show the annual growth rate per period: near zero for millennia, peaking 1950–1970 (the Great Acceleration).

Decomposition of material growth (per period)
%0%25%50%75%100MÖ 10.000–MÖ 8.000MÖ 8.000–MÖ 6.000MÖ 6.000–MÖ 4.000MÖ 4.000–MÖ 2.000MÖ 2.000–MS 1MS 1–MS 1000MS 1000–MS 1700MS 1700–MS 1800MS 1800–MS 1900MS 1900–MS 1950MS 1950–MS 1970MS 1970–MS 2000MS 2000–MS 2025
Population effect Per-capita intensity effect
Material — annual growth rate
% / yr
0,001,252,503,755,00MÖ 10.000–MÖ 8.000MÖ 8.000–MÖ 6.000MÖ 6.000–MÖ 4.000MÖ 4.000–MÖ 2.000MÖ 2.000–MS 1MS 1–MS 1000MS 1000–MS 1700MS 1700–MS 1800MS 1800–MS 1900MS 1900–MS 1950MS 1950–MS 1970MS 1970–MS 2000MS 2000–MS 2025

Two ratios explain the divergence: tonnes per person (the sociometabolic rate) and kilograms of material per dollar of output (material intensity).

Material use per capita
tonnes / person / yr · log
0,1110100MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.0000,7 tonnes / person / yr
MÖ 8.0000,8 tonnes / person / yr
MÖ 6.0001 tonnes / person / yr
MÖ 4.0001,3 tonnes / person / yr
MÖ 2.0002,3 tonnes / person / yr
MS 12,4 tonnes / person / yr
MS 10002,4 tonnes / person / yr
MS 17002,4 tonnes / person / yr
MS 18002,4 tonnes / person / yr
MS 19002,34 tonnes / person / yr
MS 19503,56 tonnes / person / yr
MS 19705,95 tonnes / person / yr
MS 20006,89 tonnes / person / yr
MS 202510,5 tonnes / person / yr
Material intensity (per unit of GDP)
kg / $ GDP · log
0,1110100MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.00017,3 kg / $ GDP
MÖ 8.00015,44 kg / $ GDP
MÖ 6.00012,96 kg / $ GDP
MÖ 4.00010,43 kg / $ GDP
MÖ 2.0008,72 kg / $ GDP
MS 12,56 kg / $ GDP
MS 10003,07 kg / $ GDP
MS 17002,39 kg / $ GDP
MS 18002,21 kg / $ GDP
MS 19001,06 kg / $ GDP
MS 19501,09 kg / $ GDP
MS 19701,03 kg / $ GDP
MS 20000,75 kg / $ GDP
MS 20250,72 kg / $ GDP
Raw series and data table
Population
million people · log
1101001.00010.000MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.0004,4 million people
MÖ 8.0005,5 million people
MÖ 6.00012 million people
MÖ 4.00020 million people
MÖ 2.00027 million people
MS 1190 million people
MS 1000300 million people
MS 1700595 million people
MS 1800983 million people
MS 19001.560 million people
MS 19502.500 million people
MS 19703.700 million people
MS 20006.100 million people
MS 20258.100 million people
Annual material extraction
Gton · log
0,0010,010,1110100MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.0000,003 Gton
MÖ 8.0000,004 Gton
MÖ 6.0000,012 Gton
MÖ 4.0000,026 Gton
MÖ 2.0000,062 Gton
MS 10,456 Gton
MS 10000,72 Gton
MS 17001,4 Gton
MS 18002,4 Gton
MS 19003,7 Gton
MS 19508,9 Gton
MS 197022 Gton
MS 200042 Gton
MS 202585,1 Gton
Average transport distance
km · log
101001.00010.000MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.00010 km
MÖ 8.00012 km
MÖ 6.00015 km
MÖ 4.00025 km
MÖ 2.00050 km
MS 1100 km
MS 1000120 km
MS 1700250 km
MS 1800400 km
MS 1900700 km
MS 19501.000 km
MS 19701.400 km
MS 20001.500 km
MS 20251.566 km
Total physical transport work
Gton x km / yr · log
0,11101001.00010.000100.0001.000.000MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.0000 Gton x km / yr
MÖ 8.0000,1 Gton x km / yr
MÖ 6.0000,2 Gton x km / yr
MÖ 4.0000,7 Gton x km / yr
MÖ 2.0003,1 Gton x km / yr
MS 145,6 Gton x km / yr
MS 100086,4 Gton x km / yr
MS 1700357 Gton x km / yr
MS 1800944 Gton x km / yr
MS 19002.555 Gton x km / yr
MS 19508.900 Gton x km / yr
MS 197030.800 Gton x km / yr
MS 200063.000 Gton x km / yr
MS 2025133.204 Gton x km / yr
Transport work per capita
tonne x km / person / yr · log
1101001.00010.000100.000MÖ 10.000MÖ 8.000MÖ 6.000MÖ 4.000MÖ 2.000MS 1MS 1000MS 1700MS 1800MS 1900MS 1950MS 1970MS 2000MS 2025
show table
MÖ 10.0007 tonne x km / person / yr
MÖ 8.0009,6 tonne x km / person / yr
MÖ 6.00015 tonne x km / person / yr
MÖ 4.00032,5 tonne x km / person / yr
MÖ 2.000115 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 1240 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 1000288 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 1700600 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 1800960 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 19001.638 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 19503.560 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 19708.324 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 200010.328 tonne x km / person / yr
MS 202516.445 tonne x km / person / yr