The Fan of Six Numbers
For 12,000 years “how much stuff there is,” “how big the economy is” and “how much wealth sits on top of it” were roughly the same thing. In the last 200 years they came apart - and every layer we stacked higher ran away faster than the one beneath it.
The six series are divided by their value at 1 CE, setting each to 1 (market flow to its 1900 value). They all start from the same place; the chart shows growth rate only. The vertical axis is logarithmic: a straight line means a constant doubling speed, an upward curve means acceleration.
PopulationMaterials (Gton/yr)Haul distance (km)World GDPAccumulated wealthMarket flow (in-year)
From 10,000 BCE to today: population ×1,860 · materials ×28,000 · average haul distance ×157.
Four acts
10,000 – 8,000 BCE
1. Bonded layers
Hunter-gatherers. The six numbers are locked together: matter tracks people, there is no separate thing called “value.” One thin ribbon.
8,000 BCE – 1800 CE
2. First leverage
Farming. Humans start planning the flow - sowing and harvest repeated every year. Population and matter rise together, still almost proportional. Wealth becomes measurable from 1 CE; no paper yet.
1800 – 1950
3. Break-off
Coal and industry. The base goes vertical, GDP faster still; two wars collapse the wealth layer (β 6 → 3.5). The bands begin to separate.
1950 – today
4. Free spin
Financialisation. Market flow detaches from the economy and turns at its own frequency (turnover 0.2 → 12). Half of wealth is no longer a physical thing but a claim.
The same story told the other way: The Delamination of the Layers →Historical-series methodology (Layer 1) →